Text 5387, 79 rader
Skriven 2005-02-03 01:31:14 av Ulrich Schroeter (2:244/1120)
   Kommentar till text 5380 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
Ärende: Nodelist # 366
======================
Hi Michiel,

Monday January 31 2005 13:47, you wrote to me:

 MV> Hello Uli,
 >> statistic, more statistic, lie ....   =;)
 MV> The way I heard it: Lies, dammed lies, statistics.
 >>>> i've started trend analyze in nov. '03
 >>MV> Then your basis for the extrapolation was a bit shallow...
 MV> What I meant was that observing a time frame of only 13 month is to
 MV> short to make an 18 year extrapolation.
 MV> That is all right if the progress or degress goes according to welle
 MV> knowm strict rules, such as when extrapolation the orbit of a planet.
 MV> But in this case, the assumption of linear decay is not really
 MV> waarented. In fact there are good reasons to assume it will not remain
 MV> linear.

so its called trend analyze ... ;)

do i know what tommorow happens? than i'm god, beware ....

 >> its an extraction on the linear leavings part
 >>          ^
 >>        /   \
 >>      /       \
 >>    /           \
 >>
 >>>          |--->
 >>
 >> includes actual influences of actual technical innovations
 >> i.e. cdp, ip and so on that may reduce the leavings but cant
 >> stop it ....
 MV> Indeed, it is downhill from now on...

in above grafic, yes .... ,-)

but in real live too ...

 >>MV> In here there once (1995) were 1200 nodes and 5600 registered
 >>MV> points. The decay started to level of at the 100 sysop point.
 >>MV> Now there are about 40 left in The Netherlands and the numbers
 >>MV> are stable. So at the 8% level the deacy started to deviate from
 >>MV> linear and at 3% it became stable. Has R24 regressed to that
 >>MV> point yet?
 >>
 >>           r24 unique sysops
 >> 1997/01      3695            100,0 %
 >>                                       - 3254
 >> 2003/11       441             11,9 %              100,0 %
 >>                                       - 82
 >> 2005/01       359              9,7 %               81,4 %
 MV>
 MV> So we are nearing the cross over point where the curve will flatten
 MV> off....

we'll see ...     ?-)


 >>>>MV> Will FidoNet survive until 2032? No I don't think so either.
 >>>>MV> By that time other mechanisms will come into play. In 28 years
 >>>>MV> I will be 86. The IT guy at the old folk's home probably will
 >>>>MV> not be able to let my DOS apps run at the computers they have
 >>>>MV> there for the clients...
 >>>> probably you'll be a museums guardman ?
 >>MV> At 86? ;-)
 >> in germany they talk about that in a few years the
 >> pensionsare less. I estimate, only my private pension will
 >> give me a "normal" pension otherwise addtl. job is needed .....
 MV> Same here. It seems that by the time I am 65, there will be no more
 MV> money left for my pension... :-(

so you probably accepts a guardsman job?    ,-)

 MV> Cheers, Michiel

regards, uli   ;-)

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 * Origin: AMBROSIA - 63067 Offenbach/M. (2:244/1120)