Text 5853, 92 rader
Skriven 2005-07-10 13:37:04 av Mike '/m' (1:379/45)
Ärende: Everything You Need to Know About Next-gen Broadband
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From: Mike '/m' <mike@barkto.com>


http://www.broadbandreports.com/shownews/65298

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ADSL2+? VDSL2? Fiber to the Curb? Fiber to the Home? DOCSIS 3.0? It's hard to
get to the truth behind the constant stream of belligerently optimistic press
releases. We sit down with industry reporter Dave Burstein to try and make
sense of next generation broadband deployment, and find out when (if ever)
you'll begin to see next gen speeds from your broadband provider.

BBR: What can we really expect in regards to a bell next-gen deployment
timeline?

DB: In three to four years - because constructing facilities for millions of
people take that long - expect that half of Verizon should have fiber at 15-100
meg, otherwise slow DSL. Half of SBC should have DSL at 10-20Mbps, from
existing boxes 2,000-5,000 feet away (FTTN). The rest will be slow DSL and
satellite resale. One-tenth of BellSouth customers should have 50Mbps+ service
from fiber to the curb. Half of the rest should have 10-30Mbps DSL, often using
two lines.

BBR: As we discussed yesterday, Verizon seems like the poster child of how to
do a next-gen deployment correctly. Your thoughts on their Fios plans?

DB: Verizon is going as fast as it can building fiber; one newspaper reported
2,000 crews working just in Virginia! It's really that big a job to rewire a
third of the U.S. All the others are constrained more by their decision on how
much to spend, not construction limits.

Verizon wants fiber to the home. That's the big deal. Three million homes
passed by the end of 2005. They've budgeted for, and are likely to deliver - a
total of 7 million by the end of 2006 and 15 million by the end of 2008. That's
about half of their 1/3rd of the country target - an enormous build costing
$15-20 billion. Verizon and NTT in Japan are the only two large carriers in the
world doing large volumes of fiber.

Currently, Verizon has a BPON network with video that matches cable on one
wavelength and 19 meg down/ 6 meg up. They intend to switch to GPON for new
builds as soon as it's ready, and have pushed manufacturers to have equipment
by mid-2006 and accelerated the international standard. That's designed for 100
meg symmetric and higher, for real.

For the 20 million plus other Verizon subscribers, they will continue offering
DSL and have given no indication they'll jump from the 1-5 meg ADSL speeds to
the 10-15 meg ADSL2+. They stopped the DSL build at 80% or so to concentrate on
fiber, but I believe are now going back to reach 90%+. Because they were
considering selling rural lines, they didn't invest, leaving half of Maine
unserved.

BBR: How about SBC's "Project Lightspeed"? Our understanding is that SBC was
testing an ADSL2+/VDSL hybrid, but was unhappy with the results; they should
should soon announce the use of VDSL2 for their next-gen network and U-Verse
IPTV services, correct?

DB: SBC is selling satellite to 50% of their users -a fancy TIVO style set top
and a slow DSL connection, and upgrading the rest to low profile VDSL2 they
call fiber to the node. From the projected 2,000-5,000 feet, low profile VDSL2
is maybe 20 meg down, 1-3 meg up, most of which will be used for their video.
They've slipped a year, with 2008 now the goal for 18 million homes completed
out of their 30 something million home target. Also called "fiber to the press
release" (it's really DSL) and "fiber to the rich" (they are only building the
"high-value" customers). Investment is less than 30% of what Verizon plans.

BBR: How about BellSouth? Our understanding is they had run more fiber than the
other two bells previously - and first settled on ADSL2+ - but now say they'll
eventually embrace VDSL2?

DB: BellSouth has 13 million lines, a million of which have fiber to the curb
from a quiet build begun years ago, yes. Those are the lucky ones, because they
will be upgraded to 100 meg symmetric VDSL over the next few years. Think 60
megs in practice, but still pretty good. BellSouth has just picked that build
up to 200,000 lines for 2005 after slowing down for a few; unfortunately, at
that rate it will take them fifty years to complete their rollout.

The others at BellSouth are getting a build ready that will be much like SBC's,
with DSL from a fiber node in the neighborhood. They intend to bond together
two lines for most customers, to give you speeds closer to 30 meg down - more
than the 15-20 meg SBC plans - because they think you'll need that for HD
video.

Nominally ADSL2+, will morph into VDSL2 low profile soon. But VDSL2 low profile
really is a slightly improved ADSL2+ (2-5 meg faster at these distances), not
the 100 meg "high profile" that only works 500-1000 feet they are using for the
lucky fiber to the curb types....
===

 /m

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