Text 21761, 105 rader
Skriven 2008-10-11 21:17:48 av Russell Tiedt (5:7105/1)
  Kommentar till text 21756 av Peter Knapper (3:772/1.0)
Ärende: Internet commentary
===========================
Hello Peter.

11 Oct 08 12:58, you wrote to me:

 RT>> Here is a commentary, that appeared on News24.co.za
 RT>> this morning ... , with
 RT>> regard to the development in 10 years ... , a little
 RT>> different from mine ...

 PK>  .... snip ...

 PK> All very interesting but I do wonder on how accurate it will be for
 PK> some people.

That depends on the vagaries of life, of which tere be too darn many ... <VBG>

 RT>> The internet in 10 years time - Arthur Goldstuck

 PK> I say it will be near impossible to predict WHEN this will happen (if
 PK> ever).....;-) 10 years s a very long time for technology these days,
 PK> and an eternity for the economic world (just view recent events). Its
 PK> a brave man that puts hard timelines on things these
 PK> days................;-)

Well, he is an ex member of FidoNet here, and he has proved more reliable than 
most when it comes to Internet related "happenings" here ... , but usually he 
does not comment as long as 10 years into the future ...

 PK> The example I use is very close to me.

 PK> Just over 5 years ago Fibre (FTTH) was laid in many suburbs within
 PK> Auckland (right past my gate in fact), and its still there, but unlit
 PK> and unused. To this day I have never been able to find out WHO owns it
 PK> and what their plans are for it. I have been told that "its not
 PK> economical to light it up", but then I am wary of those saying this
 PK> because they wont (can't???) say WHO owns it. Our largest Telco is
 PK> denying any knowledge of it, so it remains a mystery, as Copper is
 PK> still the predominant delivery mechanism in this part of the world.
 PK> Now that ADSL2+ is becoming available, 20Mb/s over copper is very
 PK> viable for many people (not me though, my "old" ADSL line struggles to
 PK> give me 2Mb over 5Km of copper), I wonder if this FTTH will ever be
 PK> used. But then its a rare month when I use more than 1GB of traffic...

Well, there are three companies laying fibre here at a tremendous rate, the 
first are the local municipalities, the second is TELKOM (they have a 
stranglehold on all international bandwidth here), and their competitor NeoTel 
...

Telkom alone last year reported losses of close to 500 million rands due to 
theft of copper cable ... , some areas are so bad, they steal the copper as 
fast as they put new cable in, most businesses in these areas are now using 
GSM cellur phones for bussiness in these areas ... , as no business can afford 
to be without voice/fax/data abilities these days and still expect to do 
business.

As for traffic, I can probably use 10-12 gigs of traffic a month, between 
myself and the kids, and their friends, if I could afford it ... , see 
comments later on bandwidth ...

 PK> What you and I are talking about are things that are close to us,
 PK> things that we can see happening locally. What is missing here is "the
 PK> bigger picture", so any "future" perspective will be clouded by what
 PK> knowledge the person stating it really has. Much of the article you
 PK> quoted has already been stated in this part of the world, roughly 5
 PK> years ago. Almost none of it has firmed up to any appreciable level
 PK> (yet). I am not saying that it WONT happen, but more that the
 PK> timelines are very much blurred by reality.

Big difference here is the rate at which the copper cable gets stolen here ...

 PK> Overall, there is nothing new in there, just the way the article
 PK> content has been put together.

Yes, just been updated a bit here and there ... , but a totally screwed 
situation is now in existance here ... as of the beginning of this month.

Now you tell me how usefull this scheme is ...

I have had a 3Gig. cap local and international bandwidth, but as of this 
month, I get an additional 30Gig. local only bandwidth, but here is the rub, I 
only get access to this bandwidth, when I reach my 3Gig. cap, then I can reach 
all locally hosted sites, but have no connetion to the international sites ... 
, and if I top-up my cap, i.e. buy and additional Gig or 2, I then loose 
access to the 30Gig. local only bandwidth, till that extra cap is blown. If I 
don't use all the extra bandwidth I have bought, by the end of the month, I 
loose the remainder, just as with my normal 3Gig. cap, if I don't use it all, 
come end of month I loose the unused portion.

Does this make any sense too you ... , remeber that games that are based on 
STEAM authentication and similar, need to authenticate to an international 
server ...

Wonderfull place South Africa is, Telkom/Eskom excluded .... <BG>

Electricy has just gone up 27%, and is set to go up another 50% soon, and then 
if they think you are using more than your share of electricty, they are going 
to impose fines for so doing. How they intend implementing this has yet to be 
said ...

As we say here, Ja, Well, No, Fine ...

Russell

--- GoldED+/LNX 1.1.5
 * Origin: Rusty's BBS - Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa (5:7105/1)