Text 25998, 191 rader
Skriven 2009-01-12 22:36:26 av Herman Neut (2:280/1141)
  Kommentar till text 25985 av Roy Witt (1:397/22)
Ärende: Ice Age
===============
Hi Roy,


   Quoting: Roy Witt to Joe Bruchis
 Date/Time: 12-Jan-09 / 09:17:40
   Subject: Ice Age


 RW> 12 Jan 09 07:00, Jeff Binkley wrote to All:

 JB>> * Copied (from: MATZDOBRE) by Joe Bruchis using timEd/386
 JB>> 1.10.y2k+.

 RW> I wish you would have formatted it to 75 charcters per line.

 JB>> http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0

 JB>> Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

 JB>> The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age,
 JB>> according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within
 JB>> the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide
 JB>> our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the
 JB>> warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon
 JB>> be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age
 JB>> conditions for the next 100,000 years.

 JB>> Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies
 JB>> of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular
 JB>> cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about
 JB>> 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each
 JB>> lasting about 12,000 years.

 JB>> Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources
 JB>> also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical
 JB>> cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The
 JB>> three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which
 JB>> varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earths orbit,
 JB>> which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession
 JB>> of the Equinoxes, also known as the earths wobble, which
 JB>> gradually rotates the direction of the earths axis over a period
 JB>> of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age
 JB>> causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects
 JB>> the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act
 JB>> together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm
 JB>> interglacials.

 JB>> Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were
 JB>> first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in
 JB>> 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph
 JB>> Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form
 JB>> by the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and
 JB>> 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal Science published a landmark
 JB>> paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton
 JB>> entitled Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice
 JB>> Ages, which described the correlation which the trio of
 JB>> scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained
 JB>> from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical
 JB>> Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory
 JB>> has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age
 JB>> causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich
 JB>> theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in
 JB>> encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

 JB>> In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their
 JB>> own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and
 JB>> the Milankovich cycles, " must be qualified in two ways. First,
 JB>> they apply only to the natural component of future climatic
 JB>> trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to
 JB>> the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the
 JB>> long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations
 JB>> with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at
 JB>> higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that
 JB>> the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards
 JB>> extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

 JB>> During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and
 JB>> other scientists began promoting the theory that greenhouse
 JB>> gasses such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human
 JB>> industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the
 JB>> 1970s the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) has
 JB>> gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic
 JB>> establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global
 JB>> movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to
 JB>> prevent the worsening of AGW.

 JB>> The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW
 JB>> theory is the famous hockey stick graph which was presented by Al
 JB>> Gore in his 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth. The hockey stick
 JB>> graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which
 JB>> began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of
 JB>> 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the
 JB>> winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern
 JB>> Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It
 JB>> now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of
 JB>> 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for
 JB>> both snow depth and cold temperatures.

 JB>> The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on
 JB>> evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while
 JB>> ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence
 JB>> which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The
 JB>> data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and
 JB>> more credible explanation for the recent global temperature
 JB>> spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and
 JB>> interglacials.

 JB>> In 1999 the British journal Nature published the results of data
 JB>> derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia s Vostok
 JB>> station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data
 JB>> includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric
 JB>> CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates
 JB>> starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up
 JB>> to our present time.

 JB>> The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age
 JB>> maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic
 JB>> pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a
 JB>> heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph
 JB>> also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global
 JB>> temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that
 JB>> indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2
 JB>> changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing
 JB>> atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise;
 JB>> instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is
 JB>> causing global CO2 to rise.

 JB>> The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to
 JB>> the global temperature is because cold water is capable of
 JB>> retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated
 JB>> beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm
 JB>> environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer
 JB>> in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their fizz, which is
 JB>> a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is
 JB>> currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and
 JB>> as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2
 JB>> into the atmosphere.

 JB>> Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the
 JB>> changes in the earths temperature, we should expect to see global
 JB>> CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after
 JB>> the end of the earths current Interglacial warm period. We should
 JB>> already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before
 JB>> global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased
 JB>> chilling of the worlds oceans.

 JB>> The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels
 JB>> regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle
 JB>> of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and
 JB>> twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every
 JB>> 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels,
 JB>> have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at
 JB>> today.

 JB>> About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial,
 JB>> global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are
 JB>> today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a
 JB>> warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice
 JB>> Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it.
 JB>> The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and
 JB>> natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of
 JB>> AGW.

 JB>> The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously
 JB>> narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for
 JB>> the big picture of long-term climate change. The data from
 JB>> paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology,
 JB>> paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of
 JB>> entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and
 JB>> lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While
 JB>> concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming
 JB>> continues to distract the attention of people throughout the
 JB>> world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice
 JB>> Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere
 JB>> uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

 JB>> Gregory F. Fegel

 JB>> --- PCBoard (R) v15.3/M 10 * Origin:  (1:226/600)

 RW> R\%/itt

Champion QUOTING!!

Best Regards,
      Herman Neut

 e-mail: h.neutnospam@hccnet.nl

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