Text 28533, 121 rader
Skriven 2009-03-05 12:32:58 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
  Kommentar till text 28409 av Robert Bashe (2:2448/44)
Ärende: Lucky dogs
==================
Hello Bob,

On Tuesday March 03 2009 10:51, you wrote to me:

 RB>>> My maternal grandfather died at age 26 in 1918 from complications
 RB>>> from the Spanish flu. He was only one of several millions to
 RB>>> suffer the same fate. I'm sure you can understand why any
 RB>>> vaccination risk is a negligible factor in my eyes.

 MV>> That was very unfortunate for your grandfather, but dying from
 MV>> influenza is not inheritable as far as I know. Your reaction is
 MV>> understandable but illogical.

 RB> Understandable and logical.

Bringing your grandfather's misfortune into the equation is illogical as that
has no effect on your chances.

 RB> It's not a question of inheritance, but of common sense. I'm in a risk
 RB> group (age, lung problems) and don't need any further problems.

Ah, THAT is something else. THAT is a factor that you should take into account.
But it has nothing to do with your grandfather.

 RB> Incidently, the "experts" consider a new pandemic overdue, and anyone
 RB> who is not vaccinated has a higher risk than those who were. Laugh all
 RB> you want,

I am not laughing. But I do wish to point out that predicting the future is
extremely difficult and my guess is that these experts are no better in
predicting the future than the experts that did not predict the financial
crisis we are in now.

I also wish to point out that he problem with flu virusses is that hey mutate
so quickly, and you can not make the vaccin until you have a sample of the
virus itself. So the inoculation programme is always a step behind. It will not
protect you against the next mutation and the next mutation will be probably be
the one that emerges in the next flu wave.

 RB> I'm sure my grandfather and the millions who died with him did too -
 RB> beforehand.

There we go again. it was almost a century ago that your grandfather died.
Today we are far better equipped to deal with these kind of situations. Your
reaction is emotional, not rational.

 MV>> When I was a child I was inocculated against smallpox. Every child
 MV>> from my generation was inocculated against smallpox. The
 MV>> inocculation carried a one in thousand chance of getting
 MV>> meningitis. Some thirty years ago, they stopped inocculating every
 MV>> child as the protection against smallpoxe was considered to no
 MV>> longer outway the risk of meningitis.

 RB> Thirty years ago, the WHO declared smallpox eradicated from the earth
 RB> and _that_ is the reason people are no longer vaccinated.

No, it is the reason the chance of getting the disease has dropped to near zero
and so the risk balance has shifted.

 RB> The virus is only kept, to my knowledge, in laboratories in the USA
 RB> and Russia - with constant discussion whether it should not be
 RB> destroyed completely.

It may be a good idea to keep it for while. How can one really be sure that a
disease has totally been eradicated? When I was a student in the 60ties, every
student was tested for tuberculosis every year. (Mantoux). In fact an entire
branch of the health system was dedicated to tuberculosis. It was disbanded
some 30 years ago as tuberculosis was considered to be "eradicated". That was a
mistake, Tuberculosis is back.

 MV>> Over here the influnza inocculation is offered to anyone over 60
 MV>> and high risk groups like diabetes ect. For young, healthy people
 MV>> the the balance of risk is considered not to swing to the pro
 MV>> side.

 RB> The problem is that the 1918 pandemic killed _mainly_ young, healthy
 RB> people. Read up on it in Wikepedia: it's interesting to see why the
 RB> young, with good immune systems, were mainly affected.

Almost a century ago. Things were different then....

 MV>> Well, everyone has to make his own choice....

 RB> Indeed. The only problem is that you only know whether you were right
 RB> afterwards, and then there's no turning back. My personal attitude is
 RB> that this "vaccination risk" business is more panic spreading than
 RB> fact,

What about that expert prediction than another pandemic is due? How do you know
that is not a hype spread by he pharmaceutical industry?

 RB>  and if I were so inclined, I wouldn't cross the street for fear
 RB> of being run down by a car.

 RB> Cheers, Bob

 RB> P.S. I once hesitated, thinking as you do, to have my son vaccinated
 RB> against whooping cough. As a result he suffered for nearly four years
 RB> before the symptoms finally disappeared. That's another reason I don't
 RB> share your attitude.

"My attitude"? You may have missed it, but I *took*  the flu injection last
year. But contrary to you I do not think that "if it does not help, it does not
harm either." I know that I am weighing one risk against another. And I know
that I am basically gambling because I do not really know how big the risks are
in my specific case.

Regarding whooping cough, the protection is not 100% and not forever. I was
inoculated when i was young, but five years ago I caught it nevertheless. Took
me the best part of a year to recover...

And right now i am recovering form a severe cold. yes i know it is not flu and
I am am not going to die of it. But I felt very bad yesterday, could hardly
think and I needed a bucket under my nose. It will be over in a few days, so I
will just ride it out.


Cheers, Michiel

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