Text 35175, 123 rader
Skriven 2009-08-20 00:04:14 av Michiel van der Vlist (2:280/5555)
     Kommentar till en text av Grant Taylor (108592.fidonews)
Ärende: FidoNews 26:32 [02/05]: Rebuttals To Previous Articles
==============================================================
Hello Grant,

On Tuesday August 18 2009 22:16, you wrote to me:


 >> I can understand why they feel no need to replace that printer now.
 >> But will that printer still be in use in five years? Or ten? And if
 >> it is replaced with e new network printer would it not be wise to
 >> opt for one that can do IPv6 or is at least prepared for it?

 GT> Some of the printers I'm talking about, yes it is quite likely the
 GT> printers will still be in use in 5 or 10 yeras. A pair of HP LaserJet
 GT> 4050 TNs come to mind with < 25k pages on them.  I consider these
 GT> printers good for at least 100k pages and upwards of 15 - 20 years.
 GT> These printers will very likely still be in active day to day use for
 GT> a long time.

I am surprised. I am used to usefull lifespans in the order of five years for
that kind of equipment.

 GT> Along the same lines I support multiple HP LaserJet 4 and HP LaserJet
 GT> 4+ printesr introduced in '92 and '94 respectively.  Thus these
 GT> printers are 15 (+) years in to what I expect to be their 20
 GT> (something) year life cycle.

You are not going to tell me they still have some chain printers around as well
do you? ;-)

 GT> I completely agree that new purchases should be IPv6 compatiable or
 GT> easily (read: firmware) upgradeable to support IPv6 in the near
 GT> future.

"Firmware upgadeable" may lead to disappointment, Some fifteen years ago, I
bought a 28K VFC modem. The V34 specs has not been finally set and I was told
that when they were, an upgrade to V34 would be available. As it turned out a
firmware uograde did not do the trick, the harware could not handle V34 and one
chip had to be replaced.

 >> Frankly, I haven't seen a working Cobol based system in 30 years.

 GT> We can debate the quality of said systems.  The point being that there
 GT> are still a number of them in production.

In *prodcution"?! Meaning they are still being manufactured? I do not believe
that. "In use"? yes I can believe there are still a few around. Not enough to
change the great scheme of things.

 >> But there will be other reasons to replace them.

Such as that hose old chain printers can only print capaitals end customeres
don't like their letters printed in capitals  only. ;-)

 GT> I was really referring to building automation systems that do speak
 GT> IPv4 to a central controller / monitor.  Like it or not, Ethernet and
 GT> TCP/IP have won (or are the current winners) the common networking war
 GT> that has been raging for the past two decades.

TCP/IP over twisted pair is the current winner. Coax is out. Marked by the peak
in offered BNC T connectors on flea markets.

But fiber is on the rise...

 >> They are, but as I mentioned it is coming to a halt pretty soon
 >> now.

 GT> I think that the useage will be much like the half life of radio
 GT> active material.  It keeps windling until it's to a polint that we can
 GT> safely say that it's dead.

The common factor is that it will fade away, The decay characteristics are
quite differnet however. Radio active material decays exponentially. First it
decays fast and than the decay (in absolute numbers) slows down. And down and
down, making for a very long "tail".

IP$ OTOH wil show no measurable slow down in the beginning. Until more or less
suddenly the decay sets in and than it will go very fast, like a building
collapsing. Some "dust" will remain for a very long time.

 >> And you did not tell him to skip to at least XP?

 GT> I installed XP Pro SP3.  ;)

Good.

 GT> I also told them not to mess with Vista, but that we would evaluate
 GT> Windows 7 after it comes out.  ;)

Good advice.

 GT> I wonder if there will be IPv4 zellots that will hold on to it and boo
 GT> IPv6.

Of course there will. ;-) But they will be a tiny majority that can be ignored
liek the people who still believe the earth is flat and the ones who believe
Einstion was wrong and speeds add up according to Newton.

 >> I doubt they will. In ten years time, everything that connects to
 >> the InterNet will be IPv6 capable. Simply because if it does not,
 >> it will be severely limited. And when "every one and everything"
 >> has IPv6 there simply will be no more reason to keep IPv4 around.

 GT> I agree that there will be little enough reason to have an IPv4
 GT> internet to effectively say that there is no reason.  But that is the
 GT> internet, not IPv4 in general.  Even in 10 years time, I expect the
 GT> afore mentioned HP LaserJet 4050 TN printers to still be in use.

But as they won't be connected to the InterNet, the are not relevant to the
matter at hand are they?

Now, regarding the "helper programmes"that you mentioned: it occured to me that
one of the first incantations of FidoNet over IP use what we call "shims" to
make communication programs written to be used with modem, think they were
actually dialling out and receiving calls vi aa modem, while the actual
connection was over a WAN (or LAN) using TCP/IP. Vmodem is an example. It can
be used in combination with Programmes like frontdoor or telix. It accepts
Hayes commands and the shim returns appropriate responses to the calling
programme.


Cheers, Michiel

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