Text 2410, 46 rader
Skriven 2004-09-19 14:23:23 av John Hull (1:379/1.99)
   Kommentar till text 2406 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
Ärende: POll
============
18 Sep 04 21:36, LEE LOFASO wrote to JOHN HULL:

 LL> Hello John,

 >>JB>Bush clear leader in poll
 >>JB>By Susan Page, USA TODAY

 >>JB>WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over 
 >>JB>Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 
 >>JB>55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge 
 >>JB>either candidate has held this year.

 >>LL>The Pew Research Center poll has it dead even at 46% apiece (47%
 >>LL>Bush 46% Kerry among likely voters). The Rasmussen Reports poll 
 >>LL>has it Bush 49% and Kerry 45%, with neither candidate having the 
 >>LL>needed electoral votes to win (Bush 213, Kerry 175, Tossup 150).

 JH>>Go back and look at their previous poll numbers, though, and I 
 JH>>think you'll find that Kerry had a good lead.  Now he's a hair 
 JH>>behind.  Combine that with all the other polls that show Bush 
 JH>>opening a major lead, and the conclusion inescapable.  Kerry is in 
 JH>>deep kimshi and sinking fast.

 LL> Polls always fluctuate.  But it is the present that counts, and
 LL> election day that counts the most.  In fact, everything counts on
 LL> election day. But in any event, it can safely be said that Bush's
 LL> post-convention "bounce" has now dissipated, the race being dead
 LL> even once again.

But that's just it, Lee, it hasn't dissipated.  Did you read what I wrote above
at all?  It isn't the day to day or weekly numbers that are important, its the
trend that those numbers illustrate.  And that trend is leaning toward Bush, to
the extent that some of the states once thought to be solidly locked up for
Kerry are now back in play, or even slightly favoring Bush in a couple of
cases.

Its the trend that counts, and most of the major pollsters will tell you that
if they're honest.

John 

America:  First, Last, and Always!
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--- Msged/386 TE 05
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