Text 2528, 78 rader
Skriven 2004-09-22 13:57:00 av LEE LOFASO (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av JOHN HULL
Ärende: POll                  2/3
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>>> Continued from previous message

>JH>There a also internal polls done by the parties that are much more
>JH>in depth than the ones done for dissemination to the general
>JH>public. Trends are much more apparent in those than what we get.

>LL>Internal polls are always conducted on behalf of candidates.  And
>LL>the results of those internal polls are rarely, if ever, released
>LL>to the general public.  However, that says nothing about "trends".
>LL>For example, the presidential race between Carter and Reagan was dead
>LL>even until the last week of the campaign, when Reagan pulled ahead to
>LL>win on election day by ten percent.

JH>Some years ago, there was a series of seminars shown on C-Span that dealt wi
JH>political campaigns and polling, and how it affected the outcomes of electio
JH>Several prominent pollsters were on the panel.  They all said that internal
JH>polling is far more specific and far more important to strategic campaign
JH>planning than the polls done for consumption by the general public.  After
JH>advertising, campaigns spend more money on private polling than any other it

Demographics and polls do take up a large portion of the budget for
campaigns.  And for good reason.  Without spending campaign funds on
those items, a candidate has no real chance for victory.

Notice the television programs in which Bush campaign ads are aired.
Notice the television programs in which Kerry campaign ads are aired.
They are television programs in different markets.  Wanna put an
emphasis on getting more older voters?  Younger voters?  African
American voters?  Demographics and polls tell a campaign manager
where campaign funds should be spent.  Otherwise, it would be just
a guessing game.  And no candidate has unlimited funds.

>LL>The same is true of Kerry.  The two groups Kerry needs in order to
>LL>win the election are African Americans and voters 18-35 years of
>LL>age. He also needs to at least break even among seniors.  And win
>LL>a majority of women voters.  Kerry will get his vote among seniors
>LL>and women.  Not sure if he'll get what he needs among African
>LL>American and young voters.

>JH>Registration are way up among young people voting for the first
>JH>time. Last heard the GOP was making huge inroads among that age
>JH>group.

>LL>Many various groups are actively trying to get more young people
>LL>to register to vote.  And that is a good thing.  However, getting
>LL>those young people to vote is an entirely different matter.

>LL>The question is - will African Americans vote for Kerry as they
>LL>did for Gore?  And will young voters vote at all?  Without those
>LL>two groups strongly in his camp, Kerry is sunk.  Of course, with
>LL>those two groups strongly in Kerry's camp, Bush is sunk.

>JH>Kerry is not getting any traction with blacks like Clinton did,
>JH>according to the reports I've seen on the news.  And I wouldn't
>JH>count on young people backing him that much.  Both of those groups
>JH>depend heavily on economic issu and Kerry hasn't talked about those
>JH>much at all.  He still can't get away fr Vietnam or the war in Iraq,
>JH>and all he's doing is flip-flopping on those.  H did it again
>JH>yesterday.  Bush is gonna eat him alive in the debates, too.

>LL>Gore received a much higher percentage of the African American
>LL>vote than Clinton ever did.  If Kerry receives the same percentage of
>LL>the African American vote as Gore, Kerry will likely win the election.
>LL>Even if young voters choose not to vote.

JH>What in hell makes you think they want to vote for Kerry?  There isn't a sin
JH>black on his campaign staff, and he hasn't addressed issues important to bla
JH>hardly at all.  In fact, the reports I saw of the reaction to his speech to
JH>NAACP recently said that blacks gave him a luke warm response at best, and i
JH>fact, made many of them angry with his condescending tone.

For blacks, the alternative to voting for Kerry is worse.

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