Text 9880, 67 rader
Skriven 2005-03-12 21:11:00 av VERN HUMPHREY (1:123/140)
     Kommentar till en text av GARY BRASWELL
Ärende: HAVE YOU SEEN CATCH 22 OR
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GB> VH> How often have you heard one whine, "So why aren't we invading Iran (or
GB> VH> North Korea)?"

GB>I don't think its a whine.

It's a whine, because the purpose is not to suggest a better strategy,
but to pretend we are somehow totally wrong.

GB>They are a part of the "Axis of Evil" and as far as I can determine, more of
GB>threat than Iraq was.

Not quite.  First of all, North Korea is pretty well check-mated by
China, who doesn't want them to spark a war.

Secondly, there IS a War Against Terror -- and while North Korea is
dangerous, and has supported some Middle Eastern governments and groups,
the schwerpunct is the Middle East.

No one wants to say it, but the end game is to change the paradigm in
the Middle East.  To do that, we have to BE in the Middle East.  Iraq,
because of its location, beligerancy, and history is the place to start.

GB>While we largely ignored North Korea for two administrations, they went and
GB>made the bomb, effectively getting them exactly what they want, instant
GB>attention and respect through fear. Now if we do something they might light
GB>Seoul and/or Tokyo.

No -- we've hardly ignored them.  We've had troops eyeball-to-eyeball
with them for half a century.

North Korea has two problems -- first of all China doesn't want them
sparking a war.

Secondly, if they fired a nuke, what would they do for an encore?
They'd be incinerated in a heartbeat, and they know it.  Hell, half the
incoming missiles would probably be Chinese.

GB>Iran is about the develop nukes and we are playing good cop/bad cop with our
GB>European allies help and the reality is save air strikes, there is little el
GB>we can do if they just ignore us.

And if we're lucky, we can win the game without invading them.  If not,
then we'll be well-positioned to hit them from two directions.

GB>Iran has a minister of defense who openly plans the use of nukes against the
GB>and even lectures his lessers on how this will happen, mostly through
GB>terrorists.

What he says, and what he can do are two different things.  And what he
WILL do, is something entirely different.  Like North Korea, Iran knows
that total destruction would follow a nuclear strike on another country.

GB>But we are so far beyond the Iraq question. We are there now and have to win
GB>period.

That's right -- and when people in the Middle East like Whallad Jumblatt
start saying the Iraqi elections are like the fall of the Berlin Wall,
we may just be doing the right thing, after all.

GB>The fact is while we are in Iraq, the bad guys of the world know we won't go
GB>sailing into their sandbox in any great force, so its time to bulk up since
GB>they also know Europe won't do much, if anything.

Just the contrary -- they don't know we WON'T.  They have clear evidence
that when we feel the need to attack, we DO attack.
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