Text 9886, 125 rader
Skriven 2005-03-13 01:25:03 av Gary Braswell (1:123/789.0)
   Kommentar till text 9880 av VERN HUMPHREY (1:123/140)
Ärende: HAVE YOU SEEN CATCH 22 OR
=================================
VERN HUMPHREY -> GARY BRASWELL wrote:

 VH>>> How often have you heard one whine, "So why aren't we invading
 VH> Iran (or
 VH>>> North Korea)?"

 GB>> I don't think its a whine.

 VH> It's a whine, because the purpose is not to suggest a better strategy,
 VH> but to pretend we are somehow totally wrong.

I think we have already pretty much gone over this before and since we are
beyond talking about if we should have been in Iraq or not, we are there now
and have to win.

But I do think the point itself is a good one.


 GB>> They are a part of the "Axis of Evil" and as far as I can determine,
 VH> more of
 GB>> threat than Iraq was.

 VH> Not quite.  First of all, North Korea is pretty well check-mated by
 VH> China, who doesn't want them to spark a war.

China may or may not want them to start a war, after all they are ramping up
again for their talk of taking Taiwan.

If China rally wanted North Korea shut down, I think it would have already
happened or be happening.

 VH> Secondly, there IS a War Against Terror -- and while North Korea is
 VH> dangerous, and has supported some Middle Eastern governments and groups,
 VH> the schwerpunct is the Middle East.

Take your pick. I worry more about nukes in the hands of loons. We have to more
than myopic in this world.

 VH> No one wants to say it, but the end game is to change the paradigm in
 VH> the Middle East.  To do that, we have to BE in the Middle East.  Iraq,
 VH> because of its location, beligerancy, and history is the place to start.

Again, I think this has been gone over ad nauseum. I disagree we should be in
Iraq, but its too late and we have to win. That part of the debate is over.

How it all comes out will determine how we view it ultimately. I am very happy
for democracy in Iraq and fervently hope it spreads through the middle east.

 GB>> While we largely ignored North Korea for two administrations, they
 VH> went and
 GB>> made the bomb, effectively getting them exactly what they want, instant
 GB>> attention and respect through fear. Now if we do something they might
 VH> light
 GB>> Seoul and/or Tokyo.

 VH> No -- we've hardly ignored them.  We've had troops eyeball-to-eyeball
 VH> with them for half a century.

Their nuclear program is what we are talking about.

 VH> North Korea has two problems -- first of all China doesn't want them
 VH> sparking a war.

 VH> Secondly, if they fired a nuke, what would they do for an encore?
 VH> They'd be incinerated in a heartbeat, and they know it.  Hell, half the
 VH> incoming missiles would probably be Chinese.

You are also assuming their action will be governed by rational thought. With a
certified wacko in control, and a heavily indoctrinated population, who knows
if they care they will be turned into a parking lot.

Have you read how North Korean society is made up?

 GB>> Iran is about the develop nukes and we are playing good cop/bad cop
 VH> with our
 GB>> European allies help and the reality is save air strikes, there is
 VH> little el
 GB>> we can do if they just ignore us.

 VH> And if we're lucky, we can win the game without invading them.  If not,
 VH> then we'll be well-positioned to hit them from two directions.

Hit them with what? Air strikes?

 GB>> Iran has a minister of defense who openly plans the use of nukes
 VH> against the
 GB>> and even lectures his lessers on how this will happen, mostly through
 GB>> terrorists.

 VH> What he says, and what he can do are two different things.  And what he
 VH> WILL do, is something entirely different.  Like North Korea, Iran knows
 VH> that total destruction would follow a nuclear strike on another country.

I did not say a nuclear strike in relation to Iran. Read again. Sure he can't
do it right now, but then neither could Saddam when we went after him, but se
did it to supposedly prevent him from doing it and he and his were not even
openly talking about it.

 GB>> But we are so far beyond the Iraq question. We are there now and have
 VH> to win
 GB>> period.

 VH> That's right -- and when people in the Middle East like Whallad Jumblatt
 VH> start saying the Iraqi elections are like the fall of the Berlin Wall,
 VH> we may just be doing the right thing, after all.

I will certainly admit to that and pray it is and if it does go down that way,
fantastic!

 GB>> The fact is while we are in Iraq, the bad guys of the world know we
 VH> won't go
 GB>> sailing into their sandbox in any great force, so its time to bulk up
 VH> since
 GB>> they also know Europe won't do much, if anything.

 VH> Just the contrary -- they don't know we WON'T.  They have clear evidence
 VH> that when we feel the need to attack, we DO attack.

What are you going to sail into their sandbox with, the boyscouts? We are short
of troops already. And from what I am reading Rummy wants to cut back even
further which stands in contradiction of Bush's policy. Even Bill Kristol says
that.

--- Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:1.7.2) Gecko/20040804 Netscape/7.
 * Origin:  (1:123/789.0)